The trade agreement, reached by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of October in South Korea, exemplifies the type of approach that the American president has towards geopolitics: a complex mix of pressure, diplomacy and businesswhich aims at redefining the main international balances, in view of a reorganization of the global order. After all, it was a world on fire that Trump had inherited from the previous US administration in January. While Joe Biden was in the White House, the United States had lost influence over Latin America to China, the Middle East was in chaos, and Russia had begun an invasion of Ukraine. Then came the tycoon, who is now trying to restore order. The road is long and there are still many unknowns. How the copious ones continue to register “shoot” of the president, escapes forward sometimes disorganized in the ways and on the occasions that risk ruining the diplomatic work behind the scenes. Among the most sensational remain the desire to annex Greenlandor the placing the Panama Canal under US protectionor the invasion of Canada. Even on timing, the tycoon often misfires: like when he promised the peace in Ukraine in two weeks.
Diplomatic results and peace agreements
However, there have been some diplomatic results: he has successfully mediated some significant ones peace agreementsfrom the one between Armenia and Azerbaijan to the one between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. He also bombed and isolated Iran to push it to negotiate on nuclear power, also bringing home a historic agreement for the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Without neglecting the aforementioned trade agreement with Beijing, on the basis of which The Donald has reduced duties and suspended special port taxes for China, while the People’s Republic has deferred restrictions on the export of rare earths, also committing itself to purchasing large quantities of US soybeans. It is true that Ukraine is encountering more difficulties than expected. But he at least got credit for stir the waters after three years of political-diplomatic stalemate. Yes, he held out his hand to Vladimir Putin to start a dialogue, but at the same time he put sanctions to Russian oil companies Lukoil And Rosneft. Finally, Trump is trying to make Washington regain ground in Latin America too: it is in this sense that the US military pressure on the pro-Chinese regime of Nicolas Maduro.
The so-called “Trump doctrine”
The question to ask then is only one: how did the current one do it commander in chief to get the United States out of the corner it had been put in at the time Sleepy Joe? From this point of view, it is perhaps interesting to take a look at what we might define as the “Trump doctrine”to try to understand what its basic principles are and what its concrete applications are.
Let’s start by saying that, albeit mutatis mutandis, the American president is consistent with the approach adopted by Henry Kissinger in the seventies: the combination, that is, of diplomacy and use of force in the name of a savvy Realpolitik. In other words, Trump has quashed the rhetoric – typical of both neoconservatism and progressivism – of the values and alliance of democracies against autocracies.
Diplomacy without ruptures and use of coercion
The current occupant of the White House talks to everyone, does not compare anyone to Adolf Hitler and, even in moments of deep crisis, never completely cuts off the lines of communication. Be careful, however: this does not mean that he is for dialogue as an end in itself. As mentioned, the president alternates negotiations with the use of military power: not surprisingly, he constantly quotes Reagan’s expression of «peace through strength».
The interlocutor, according to this logic, must be put in a position to weakness and, above all, forced to negotiate. That of the tycoon is therefore a diplomacy that combines deterrence And coercion. And this, especially during his second mandate, applies to both adversaries (Russia, Iran, China) and allies (from the EU to Israel, via Canada).
The central role of business
But that’s not all. In addition to the use of the cane, the “Trump doctrine” also provides for the use of carrot: and this is where the central role of the economic affairs. There reconstruction of Gaza represents, in the eyes of the president, a fundamental element for the relaunch of the Abraham Accords and to quell tensions in the Strip. Furthermore, when he brokered peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan last August, the president forged economic ties with both countries, promoting the creation of a transit corridorcalled Trump route for international peace and prosperity. Not only that.
In October, after overseeing the signing of the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, the American president concluded commercial agreements with both capitals. Finally, even in his fluctuating relations with Moscow, Trump has repeatedly tickled the Kremlin with the prospect of tempting economic agreements.
The logic of well-being as a peacemaker
In short, the appearance “business” appears to be of crucial importance. The goal, for The Donald, is to defuse conflict political, ethnic or religious, leveraging the economic well-being: which obviously also allows Washington to strengthen its own international influence from a geopolitical and commercial perspective. Of course, there are those who turn up their noses at this approach, calling it interested and soulless. The theme, however, is another. In History, the great international reorganizations – from Peace of Westphalia al Congress of Vienna – have always been based oninterest of the actors in the field, not on abstract values or goodwill. The secret, essentially, is to make the peace more convenient than war: only in this way can conflicts really stop. And, like it or not, the American leader understood this. Moreover, it is here that his team’s geopolitical sense emerges trade agreements.
The real strategic target: China
But what is the main objective of the “Trump doctrine”? What is the common thread that links your approaches to various international dossiers, from the Middle East to Ukraine? The answer is only one: China. The American president considers Beijing the systemic rival of the United States. And therefore all the various geostrategic issues it addresses must also be read in light of the competition with the Dragon: a competition that is becoming increasingly tight. It’s true: what has been said may seem counterintuitive, given that Trump and Xi Jinping recently reached a trade agreement. However, more than one real peaceit is perhaps one “armed truce”: it’s as if two runners out of breath decided to stop briefly together, to rest and then start the race again.
Hidden signs of rivalry
At least two elements demonstrate this. First: Trump has not yet relaxed the restrictions American restrictions on high-tech exports towards China. Indeed, during his last conversation with Xi, the topic of was not even addressed Blackwell: the super microchip that Nvidia is not currently permitted to sell in the People’s Republic due to the risks this would pose to the US national security. Second, shortly before the face-to-face meeting with the Chinese president in Busan, Trump ordered the Pentagon to resume nuclear testswhich Washington had suspended in 1992. An announcement, that of the occupant of the White House, which irritated both Beijing and Moscow.
Balance and pressure strategy
In short, if on the one hand he has concluded a commercial truce with the Dragon, on the other he has no intention of doing so let your guard down towards the People’s Republic. The American mediation between Phnom Penh and Bangkok was also aimed at curb Beijing’s influence within theAseanthe association of Southeast Asian powers. Furthermore, in his recent tour of Asia, the American strengthened relations with Tokyo And Seoul anti-Chinese function. The same US military pressure on the Venezuela it aims to weaken a regime, that of Maduro, which is one of the Dragon’s main points of reference in Latin America.
And then we also look atAfrica. Trump has threatened military action against the Nigeria: he did it, yes, citing the persecutions that Christians suffer there. But we must also not overlook that Abuja boasts close ties to the former Celestial empire (among other things, both Nigeria and Venezuela are large producers of petrolium). Finally, it is true that, at the end of October, the American president has reduced duties in Beijing, but still left them at the 47 percent. And, speaking of tariffs, the logic behind Trump’s strategy is not just to rebalance trade balances with various partners. «If you can’t produce steel and aluminum at home, you can’t fight a war»and that’s exactly what the president is doing. He’s trying to make sure we produce steel And aluminum enough to ensure ours defensethe US Secretary of Commerce declared in June, Howard Lutnickdefending the tariffs imposed by Trump on the import of the two metals.
Economic pressure as negotiating leverage
This means that i duties they are, yes, part of the coercive strategy that we talked about: that is, they are a lever with which the White House forces the interlocutors to open negotiations on specific topics. However, there is also more. Lutnick’s words suggest that Washington aims to hold on hands free and not to preclude any options. Once again the inextricable intertwining between economic-military pressure, diplomacy And business. As mentioned, Trump talks to everyone: and, in this respect, pressure represents the stickwhile business is there carrot. This helps explain why the agreements negotiated by the American president always have a significant economic component. And it also explains why the start of negotiations is often preceded by a increase in tariff or military tension.
There power politics has made a comeback. And there “Trump doctrine”often so reviled and misunderstood, did nothing but take note of it.
