Donald Trump is confirming its line of strategic ambiguity on the Ukrainian crisis. On Sunday, the US National Security Advisor in pectore, Mike Waltzgave a rather detailed speech, speaking to Fox News.
On the one hand, he did not explicitly distance himself from the Biden administration’s latest moves on the Ukrainian dossier. “Jake Sullivan and I had discussions, we met. For our adversaries out there who think that this is a moment of opportunity, that they can pit one administration against another, they are wrong,” he said. On the other hand, however, he added: “The president in pectore has been very concerned about the escalation and where it is going.” “We must end this responsibly. We must restore deterrence and peace and anticipate this escalation, rather than react to it,” he continued.
In short, in his words, Waltz he probably sent two signals: one a Vladimir Putin and another to Volodymyr Zelensky. He basically communicated to the Tsar that, on the latest moves relating to the Ukrainian crisis, the incoming administration does not seem to disagree with the outgoing one: let’s remember that Joe Biden recently gave Kiev authorization to use Atacms missiles on Russian territory. Trumpin other words, wants to put Putin under pressure, making him understand that he is not willing to make peace at any cost. However, if he really wants to reach the end of the conflict, the American president in pectore knows that he cannot afford appeasement: such a scenario would in fact end up paying dearly in other contexts, such as the Indo-Pacific. Trump that is, it aims to avoid a domino effect.
On the other hand, however, Waltzspeaking to Fox News, underlined the tycoon’s concerns about the escalation and his desire to reach a peace. A signal, this, aimed instead at Zelensky. Trump in fact, he wants the Ukrainian president to sit at the negotiating table, renouncing the precondition he has repeatedly set: namely that of the unilateral withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. A precondition that Trump consider it fundamentally unrealistic. The American president in pectore wants, in other words, that the Ukrainian leader does not believe in unconditional support from the United States. On the other hand, already in December 2023, one of the main advisors of Trump for national security, Keith Kellogghad suggested making the sending of further military assistance to Kiev conditional on its willingness to sit at the negotiating table.
Not surprisingly, the line of Trump can be summed up in these words of Waltz: “We must restore deterrence and peace and anticipate this escalation rather than react to it.” Peace cannot exist without deterrence: which means negotiating, yes, but with the proverbial gun resting on the table, avoiding any scenario of appeasement. Words, those of Waltzin which we can glimpse, here, a veiled criticism of Bidenwhich managed the Ukrainian crisis without adequately exercising deterrence, trying to close the stable once the horse had bolted.
Moreover, it was quite clear from some of his significant silences in recent days that the president in pectore is following a line of strategic ambiguity. He had not commented on the move Biden on Atacms. He also refused to confirm or deny the alleged phone call he allegedly had with Putin a few days after winning the election. Even in that case, Trump he had sent coded messages to put pressure on the two belligerents. By not condemning the Atacms, he had made it clear to the tsar that he was not prepared for peace at all costs. Neither confirming nor denying the phone call with Putin himself, had instilled doubt in Zelensky that I could be ready to negotiate without him, if he did not agree to sit at the negotiating table.
In view of the settlement, Trump he doesn’t want to reveal his cards. But it is clear that he aims to ensure that the two belligerents take nothing for granted about his intentions. Unpredictability, on the other hand, is an essential component of deterrence. And this is perhaps the deepest sense of the strategic ambiguity of the president in pectore.
