Election Day on November 5th is now upon us. And, as the American election campaign draws to a close, the question that many legitimately ask is: when will the name of the winner be known?
Traditionally, with the exception of 2000, the results of the presidential elections were already known on the night of Election Day or, at most, on the morning of the following day. In 2020, however, it took almost five days. And, as recently reported by TheHillone of the reasons for that situation was the increase in postal voting due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Suffice it to say that this type of vote represented 43% of the total, compared to 25% in the 2016 presidential elections.
This year, according to the same newspaper, the operations could be quicker: in addition to less use of postal voting, various states have made changes to the counting procedures. For example, Michigan and Nevada, this year, will allow the start of operations before Election Day. A similar situation should then apply to Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, although, according to TheHillin the latter state operations may take longer due to the damage recently caused by Hurricane Helene. However, early counting will not be allowed in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania: two states considered crucial this year. It is therefore clear that this could lengthen the time needed to know the winner. In fact, it will be difficult to have a definitive picture without these two ruling states.
Second ForbesGeorgia should still prove to be one of the first states to be assigned, given that probably 90% of the ballots will be counted by midnight on Election Day. North Carolina itself, net of the post-hurricane difficulties, should be among the first to announce the results. Michigan instead said that unofficial results are expected on Wednesday. Arizona and Nevada could prove to be slower, while – as mentioned – even greater delays will almost certainly concern Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
All this, without neglecting possible recount requests. Arizona and Pennsylvania allow recounts if the difference is within 0.5%, while Wisconsin and North Carolina allow it within 1%. In some states it may also be requested for suspected irregularities. The real point will be to understand whether, this year, the polls will prove reliable. Should the predicted neck-and-neck in key states actually occur, we will need to prepare for recount requests and probable legal battles. On the other hand, if, surprisingly, someone were to win clearly in some of the key states, the time needed to know the name of the new president could be significantly shortened.
