In America the working class will not go “to heaven”, but it has certainly had a very important influence on presidential elections over the last 16 years. Not surprisingly, the race for the White House is now largely decided by the three working-class states of the Rust Belt: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This is a problem area that, in recent years, has suffered the consequences of the Great Recession and deindustrialization. Without neglecting unfair Chinese competition. If Michigan is historically linked to the automotive sector, Pennsylvania has a steel industry, as well as natural gas extraction. Finally, Wisconsin has an active economy in various sectors: agricultural machinery, motorcycles and paper. Now, the interesting aspect is that the “blue collar workers” of these three states have historically been Democratic Party voters. Yet, in recent times, something has been changing. One of the most significant political transformations that Donald Trump managed to bring to the Republican Party was to make it increasingly the reference group for the working class..
This turning point had already emerged in the 2016 election campaign, when the tycoon focused much of his programmatic proposal on a broad review of US foreign trade. So he adopted a severe line towards China, also calling for a renegotiation of some free trade agreements, considered disadvantageous for workers in the “Rust Belt”, the industrial belt of North America.. Here the then Republican candidate began to grow among the blue-collar workers of Michigan and Wisconsin, concerned above all about Beijing’s dumping and its unfair competition. Trump he also became a champion of traditional energy against the green ideology that had characterized the last years of the presidency of Barack Obama: this is a factor thanks to which the tycoon entered into harmony with the working class world of Pennsylvania, whose economy is significantly linked to “fracking”, the extraction of oil by crushing shale rocks.
It was therefore no coincidence that, in 2016, the Republican candidate managed to conquer, albeit by a whisker, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania itself: states which had continuously voted for the Dems in the presidential elections from 1992 to 2012 and which they will be decisive in the vote on November 5th. As president, then, Trump he kept most of the promises he had made to the working class. He renegotiated the old trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, also blocking the Trans Pacific Partnershipa free trade agreement signed by Obama. He also started a trade war with China and abandoned the Paris climate agreement. What he failed to achieve, due to the opposition of the more orthodox wing of the Republican Party itself, was the infrastructural reform that he had promised during the election campaign: a factor that would have damaged him in the 2020 elections. In that session, Trump in fact he lost in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, in these three states he obtained many more votes than four years earlier. A sign that his influence on the working class had now taken root.
And be careful: we are not just referring to the white working class. With Trumpthe Republican Party also began to grow among African Americans and, above all, among Hispanics. It is no coincidence that, at the end of September, the progressive newspaper Vox ran the headline: «The Republican Party is less white than ever. Thanks to Donald Trump». A clear reversal of trend, in short, compared to 2012, when the Grand old party was held up as the almost exclusive point of reference for whites and the rich classes. From this point of view, the curious phenomenon of the so-called “Obama-Trump voters” is interesting: that is, voters who, in the Rust Belt, voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, and then supported Trump in 2016 and 2020.
The apparent paradox is explained by the fact that the Obama of the early days was very attractive to the workers of that area. He presented himself as an anti-establishment candidate as well as ready to save the automotive sector: an element that earned him support especially in Michigan. And then what happened? That the Democrats have gradually begun to move away from the traditional working class, chasing Californian-style progressivism. One of the main problems he encountered Hillary Clinton in 2016 it was precisely with the blue collar workers of the steel production area. It is an electoral quota compared to which Joe Biden – originally from Pennsylvania and historically closer to the unions – was more appreciated, but was unable to reverse the trend. In fact, as mentioned, despite losing in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Trump received many more votes in these states in 2020 than four years earlier.
And now the real problem concerns Kamala Harris. The vice president has her historic basis of consensus in the wealthy urban classes of California: she is therefore not exactly at ease in the working-class states. Even his deputy, Tim Walzreappointed governor of Minnesota in 2022, has not received particular appreciation from that electorate. To gain ground, the Dem candidate abandoned her more radical “green” positions, for example becoming a supporter of the fracking which, in 2019, she wanted to ban instead. ANDyet a part of the trade union world has turned its back on her: despite having obtained the support of some important groups such as the AFL-CIO, the vice president was abandoned by others. For example, the powerful union of truck drivers and railway workers has decided this year not to support any presidential candidate: a real slap in the face Harrisgiven that, since 2000, this organization has continuously given its “endorsement” to the Dems during the presidential elections. Not only that. According to an internal survey, it seems that 58 percent of members are currently in favor of Trump.
Another tile on the vice president came from the firefighters’ union which, despite having supported Biden in 2020, he decided not to take sides this year. On the other hand, according to the polling average of Real clear politics, the advantage of the Democratic candidate in the three workers’ states of the Rust Belt is lower than that of Biden and of Clinton at the beginning of October 2020 and at the beginning of October 2016 respectively. As if that wasn’t enough, says the CNN analyst Harry Ententhe Harrisat the moment, would be ahead in the vote of unionized workers by only nine points: ten less than Biden in 2020.
Furthermore, at the beginning of October, the Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper reported that the Republicans are advancing in those working-class neighborhoods of Philadelphia, which were once Democratic strongholds. TrumpIn short, it is more convincing. With the crusade against electric cars, he courts the metalworkers of Michigan, while, hoping for energy independence, he winks at the workers of Pennsylvania. He also chose a deputy, JD Vancewhich, on paper, is a very attractive profile for areas with a high concentration of workers. Moreover, the Republican candidate knows well that, to return to the White House, it would be enough for him to defend the states he captured in 2020, adding Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. This is probably the strategy he is following. At the same time, however, it should be remembered that in recent years, the Republicans have, indeed, grown among workers, but have also simultaneously lost ground in the affluent hinterlands of the big cities. These are areas where Trump had encountered considerable difficulties in 2020. Here, today, he is trying to do battle, focusing on economic issues and partially softening the traditional Republican position on abortion. However, it is on the rougher blue-collar workers that the tycoon is really betting in these last, decisive days of his electoral tour. Because that is where her opponent appears most vulnerable.
