During the ceremony for the change of command which took place in recent days in Norfolk, Virginia, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, now head of the NATO Military Committee, gave an interesting interview to the newspaper Defense Newsof which we propose a summary. Various topics were touched upon but first of all the senior officer gave an overview of the situation: “The Atlantic Alliance, explains Bauer, “after the invasion of Ukraine has changed profoundly, with many nations now spending more than 2% of GDP for armaments and included Sweden and Finland. But despite the aid already given to Zelensky and that which Biden has just announced – including more F-16 aircraft, Ukraine is steadily losing ground to Russia, which now threatens to take the vital city of Pokrovsk, while Europe is divided over how far Kiev can fire Western weapons into Russian territory; of the difficulties of producing weapons in the West, which is still too slow, and finally of how complex it is to abandon old ideas about how the West defends itself.” Regarding the security situation in the Baltics and possible Russian plans to operate on the eastern flank, the official said: “If Putin is wise he will not make any moves. But that’s basically the purpose of our deterrence: to make sure he understands that it wouldn’t be a good decision. We are vigilant to make sure they know we are ready. Overall we don’t see a real increase in attempts to scale up operations. If you look at Baltic security, the fact that Sweden and Finland joined NATO is very important for our ability to be in a better situation than before. We see NATO forces training in Finland; the Nordic nations are working more closely together, they have made agreements on the use of their airspace and this is important news because it means that our ability is to operate faster and much more effectively in each other’s territory, which traits of sky, earth or water.”
Regarding an assessment of military power in the Baltic region. the admiral declares:
“It’s too early to say. The nations have presented their intentions and are now working on the details. It is not something that NATO organized but on which the nations agreed. Actually the same happened in the past when the Alliance built battlegroups in the East. There were some in Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. In Romania, in addition to the Americans, at a certain point the French, the Dutch, the Belgians and the forces of Luxembourg arrived. Now it’s an established thing where they’re able to build up to a brigade. Then those forces passed to NATO under the command of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe. What we will see in the North will be a series of discussions between the participating nations, I don’t know if only Sweden and Finland, there could also be others who will be asked to join. Once this is defined, they will establish command and control with NATO under Supreme Allied Commander Europe. This is my expectation but, obviously, as always in NATO, nations are sovereign states. So if Finland wants to do differently, it can do so.”
Regarding discussions about Ukraine’s use of Western weapons to strike Russia beyond 300 km from the border, where it has moved its bases, Bauer explains: “From a strictly military point of view it is smart to attack your attacker in the back of the garden, the Ukrainians have done it in recent weeks by hitting missile and fuel depots, and this hinders Russia’s ability to fight. Self-defense does not stop at your border, but there is a political reason not to grant consent.” (like that Europeans cannot do without Russia on a commercial level, ed.). Regarding weapons and the difficulty of supplying them, Bauer explains: “I think in the past we focused too much on financial efficiency because governments wanted to spend as little as possible, while industry wanted to earn as much as possible. We did it for thirty years because everything was plannable. For example, when it became clear that we were going to Afghanistan, in the North Atlantic Council we talked for a month about how many troops to send and what they would do. But knowing that a battalion was needed in a certain place, then we said okay, this is the Netherlands, then comes France. We bought extra helmets and boots, and started training just in time. It was all controllable. But we could never tell the Russians that we are not ready, that we will fight against them from a certain date onwards. The change is that we want more soldiers ready if the enemy attacks. It’s not just soldiers we need, but also tanks, armored vehicles, ammunition and everything else. So we are seeing a surge in purchases in the defense industry, but we have fundamentally destroyed it together. If today we say we produce, the answer is: do you remember when we had all these factories, and now they’re gone because you didn’t buy anything? Here, I would like industries to understand that they have a strategic interest in a strong defense, because for 80 years all these private companies were able to earn a lot of money in a stable, safe and secure environment, which was our continent. In Ukraine, defense factory managers are on guard because their plants could be closed tomorrow morning due to a missile attack. This does not enter into the thoughts of managers of other nations. Second, we need to convince investors that deterrence itself is an investment. What is deterrence? The two meter tall bouncer in front of the nightclub who will probably stop you if you want to enter without paying. If he were small they would push him aside and force the block. Now, this is deterrence. It’s about making sure that our adversaries, whether they’re the Russians or terrorist organizations, know that if they attack us they’re making a big mistake. All these things are not used to start a war but to prevent it and I think it is a good investment for our society. We can continue to prevent war as we have been able to do for the last 80 years, but we must not ignore the fact that the world is becoming a more dangerous place because what we see is the rebalancing of power between the United States and China.”
