A resilient economy and a superbonus that will weigh on the debt until 2026. Istat has in fact revised the deficit revision for 2023 upwards from 7.2 to 7.4%, which however “does not affect the forecasts contained in the Def , as they are already discounted in the profile of the level of debt as a percentage of GDP”, specifies the Minister of Economy and Finance, Giancarlo Giorgetti, at the hearing. The trend forecast for GDP growth in real terms for 2024 stands at 1%, with a marginal downward revision compared to the Nadef programmatic scenario, which set it at 1.2%. The reason? “A prudential choice, which takes into account the increased uncertainty of the international context”. In fact, the Def arrives in an international context where uncertainty and volatility show no signs of decreasing. In this situation, “every forecasting exercise, however accurate and cautious, could be overcome by events”, declared Giancarlo Giorgetti, Minister of Economy, at a hearing in Montecitorio on the Def.
A document, which, as already explained in recent weeks, unlike in the past does not present the programmatic framework within it, given that the European rules are in the process of changing: “only two countries in the whole EU have continued to apply the legislation previous precedent, we are with all the others who, like us, have preferred to wait rather than proceed in a context of uncertainty”. The programmatic framework will therefore be “illustrated in the plan prepared by the summer, which Parliament will have the opportunity to examine and approve before sending to the European authorities”, underlines Giorgetti recalling that on Tuesday 23 April the European Parliament will approve the new European governance in the Plenary. The public finance scenario for 2024 is also already “compatible with the new rules” and “the data presented show that between 2025 and 2027 Italy would achieve an adjustment in the average annual structural balance of 0.7 points of GDP and the primary structural balance of 0.83 points”.
Going into the merits of the numbers, the minister states that inflation, according to the evidence available so far, shows a consolidation of the decline in the coming months: “the forecast relating to inflation does not, however, take into consideration the impact of any adverse climatic events, nor a worsening of the geopolitical framework, which could lead to a worsening of prices, both energy and food”. In any case, “recent trends are very encouraging: in March the inflation rate measured by the Nic index was 1.2%, while underlying inflation (net of energy and food) slowed down at 2.4%”.
Super bonus node
“The reality is that this monster (superbonus, ed.) was born badly and the attempts with which we have tried to remedy it have limited the damage, otherwise we would be here telling an incredible story which” however “has aroused laughter throughout the world “. According to the data provided by the Revenue Agency, the amount of credits relating to building bonuses, recorded between 15 October 2020 and 4 April 2024, is approximately 219.5 billion overall. This amount refers to 160 .5 billion, to the credits connected to the super-ecobonus and super-earthquake bonus, while 59 billion are related to the other building bonuses. The credits of the superbonus net of the amounts subject to cancellation for various reasons (fraud, errors and duplications) are equal. to approximately 153.3 billion in the period 2020-2023. “The amount of charges connected to the Superbonus – reiterated Giorgetti – will be subject to specific monitoring, which will be carried out in light of the recent rules introduced into the law which provide for the inclusion of requests for access to benefits in specific databases managed by Enea and the Department of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, which will transmit the data to the Ministry of Economy and Finance”. The Court of Auditors and Istat confirm the distorting effect of the superbonus on the accounts, and Bankitalia adds the burden of ninety, explaining that if new incentive schemes are to be introduced “it will be necessary to avoid repeating the errors that have characterized some recent measures, in particular the 'super bonus experience'.
Middle class: taxes need to be cut
The National Council of Accountants is calling for intervention in favor of the middle class and a reconfirmation of the tax wedge cut (a measure that Giorgetti has declared he wants to reconfirm for 2025) for employees up to 35,000 euros. “We consider the refinancing of interventions, already planned for the current year, of fundamental importance, such as the cut in the tax wedge in favor of employees with incomes up to 35 thousand euros, the reduction of Irpef for taxpayers with incomes up to 28 thousand euros as well as the super-deduction for the new hiring of permanent employees”, explains the delegation of professionals at the hearing, composed of the national councilor, Rosa D'Angiolella and Pasquale Saggese, coordinator of the tax area of the national Foundation of the category.
Regarding the middle class, D'Angiolella argued that “a possible intervention in favor of the middle class, to be modulated according to the available resources, could involve an expansion of the second income bracket, the one with a 35% rate, from 50 thousand to 70 thousand EUR”. “Such a measure – she explained – would be neutral with respect to the various types of income and, therefore, would respect the principle of horizontal equity. The intervention would certainly have a cost, but it would still be contained within a maximum limit of 160 euros per taxpayer (equal to the tax reduction of 8% on a maximum of 20 thousand euros)”.
