Vladimir Zelenskij, during a very recent statement, sent an unequivocal message: “Peace with Moscow depends on the outcome of the American elections”. Words that reveal how the fate of Ukraine, torn apart by almost two years of war, is closely linked to Washington’s support. The Ukrainian president is looking forward to the November 5 vote, aware that a change of direction in the White House could mark a dramatic turning point for Kiev’s future.
As the war continues with no clear resolution on the horizon, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to Kiev, accompanied by a new $400 million military aid package, has proven to be of crucial importance. This support includes munitions, drones and air defense systems, vital tools for Ukrainian forces. However, the real dilemma lies in the uncertainties related to the internal political dynamics of the United States. “Our future is closely linked to the American one”,he declared Zelenskij, pointing the finger at a possible return of Donald Trump to the White Housewhich could reshuffle the cards on the table and endanger the flow of aid to Kiev.
Ukraine, however, is not the only one facing this uncertainty. Iran and North Korea have also stepped up their support for Moscow, supplying missiles, ammunition and even troops, further consolidating their alliance with Putin in an increasingly complex and delicate geopolitical scenario. And then there is China, which continues to silently support Russia, keeping commercial and strategic channels open.
In this already tense context, too Alexander Lukashenkothe Belarusian leader, wanted to have his say. In an interview with the BBC, he claimed that the West should “advise” Zelenskiy to start negotiations with Moscow. According to Lukashenko, only in this way will it be possible to obtain a ceasefire and start a peace process. “Why do you refuse to negotiate?”, he then asked provocatively, revealing his usual pro-Russian rhetoric. His words left a bitter aftertaste. Moreover, it is difficult to give credit to a leader who has denied the evidence on fundamental issues, such as the presence of North Korean troops alongside the Russians in the confought against Ukraine.
The Belarusian president has in fact declared that he does not believe the news in question, but reports from Kiev, Seoul and Washington paint a completely different picture, highlighting the growing cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. This stance is fully part of Lukashenko’s well-known strategy, which seeks to maintain the appearance of political autonomy on the international scene, while revealing itself to be increasingly dependent on the interests of the Kremlin. His ambiguous approach, in an attempt to navigate between Russia and the West, highlights a clear subordination to the objectives of the Tsar, confirming his loyalty to the power of Moscow.
The interview given during the BRICS summit in Kazan therefore raised more doubts than certainties. On the one hand, the Belarusian president talks about negotiations and peace; on the other, his support for Moscow is undeniable and his role in the conflict appears more that of a propagandist than a mediator.
Thus, Russia continues to play its game with cunning, taking advantage of both the fragmentation of Europe and the political uncertainty linked to a possible change of leadership in Washington. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is mobilizing troops and resources, aware that the international situation could soon turn in its favor. Zelenskij is fully aware of this: Ukraine’s fate hangs by a threadwhich extends from the American ballot boxes to the Ukrainian battlefields: from the front to the corridors of global power, where every political decision can alter the course of events. “We are grateful for the support we have received so far, but the future is uncertain”Zelenskij declared openly, reiterating the precariousness of the situation. Today, more than ever, stability and peace in Ukraine seem to depend on who will lead the United States in the coming years, a huge responsibility that weighs on the shoulders of Democrats.
