Israeli security sources believe that it is possible for the negotiators (the United States, Qatar and Egypt) to finalize an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of the hostages as early as the summit talks scheduled for Thursday, August 15 in Cairo or Doha, and that the agreement could be signed within a few days. According to Channel 12, which cites “positive assessments from anonymous sources,” much progress has been made to narrow the gap between Israel and Hamas over the terms of an agreement. Although the Islamist movement would prefer to proceed with the three-phase plan for a ceasefire in Gaza, proposed by the Americans in early July, “rather than engage in further negotiations or advance new proposals.” In any case, everything will depend on the will of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Netanyahu’s office announced on August 9 that Israel would send its negotiators to the August 15 talks “to work out the details of the implementation of the framework agreement.” The announcement came soon after the mediators said in a joint statement that an agreement had to be concluded and implemented without further delay.
Qatar also said that a document with clarifications from Israel on several contentious issues was sent to Hamas ahead of the talks, Channel 12 reported. It also learned that Hamas will be represented at the summit, which will allow mediators to shuttle between the two sides. An Israeli source told CNN that mediators informed Israeli officials that Sinwar wants a ceasefire agreement that will end the conflict in Gaza. However, “no one knows what Netanyahu wants,” the anonymous source told the TV network. In particular, the TV channel said that it is believed that an agreement could be reached by Thursday between Israel, the United States and Egypt on the arrangements regarding the Philadelphia route along the Gaza-Egypt border and the Rafah border crossing. The mediators accepted Israel’s request to exclude Hamas from this agreement. Israel considers security measures along the Gaza-Egypt border essential to prevent Hamas from restarting the import of weapons and materials and rebuilding its military capabilities.
The various parties involved in the negotiations are already discussing the names of the hostages to be released under the agreement and the names of the Palestinian security prisoners who would be released in exchange. According to Channel 12, Israel has requested, and the mediators recognize the importance of this request, to receive the names of the hostages to be released before starting to implement the agreement. Furthermore, Israel is willing to be flexible on Hamas’s demands regarding which Palestinian security prisoners should be released and which releases Israel would veto. Israel is reportedly signaling that it will be more forthcoming on this issue if Hamas includes a larger number of living hostages among the 33 to be released in the first 42-day phase of the three-phase agreement. Hamas has requested the release of Marwan Barghouti, a terrorist and prominent member of Al Fatah, who has been indicated for years as a possible leader of a Palestinian government, and of the leaders of the Palestinian factions in the first phase of the agreement for the release of Israeli hostages and the ceasefire in Gaza. The Arabic-language Sky News network reported this, stating that “the request was accepted and supported by the United States and by the mediators of Egypt and Qatar”. Furthermore, according to Sky News, Hamas considers it acceptable that Barghouti, sentenced to five life sentences, can govern Judea, Samaria (the West Bank) and Gaza at the end of the conflict. Here it is worth remembering that the Israelis have always excluded this possibility and it seems difficult that this will change at least as long as Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is in place. The talks aimed at obtaining a truce are heavily looming over Iran’s expected attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, which, according to the Israeli website Walla, is so imminent that “the latest assessment that has emerged in recent days in the Israeli intelligence community is that Iran has decided to directly attack Israel in revenge for the assassination of the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and could do so in the coming days even before the summit of negotiations on the abductees agreement,” according to two sources familiar with the matter.
While, according to the Times of Israel, “the new intelligence assessment marks a turnaround from reports in recent days that Iran was reconsidering its promise of a tough response to the assassination, which it blames on Israel, amid strong international pressure.” In any case, according to qualified intelligence sources within the Islamic Republic of Iran, a clash is taking place between President Masoud Pezeshkian, who does not want the attack out of concern for the Israeli and American reaction, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which would like to launch a larger attack than the one on April 13-14. In this regard, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, during a call with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant, announced that he had ordered the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to accelerate its transit to the Middle East. Austin also ordered the Georgia submarine to head toward the region under the jurisdiction of the Central Command (CENTCOM).
