Israeli officials are increasingly confident that Hezbollah will be the first to launch a large-scale attack on Israel in the coming days, before Iran, as Tehran is said to be reconsidering the possibility of a major offensive. CNN, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that “Hezbollah appears increasingly determined to act against Israel regardless of a possible Iranian response to the latest assassinations of the Lebanese terror group’s military commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.” One of the sources said Hezbollah was speeding up its preparations for an attack expected in the coming days, faster than Iran. Several officials said Iran was still working out its own retaliatory plans, with a U.S. military official indicating that Tehran had already completed some, but not all, of the preparations needed for a large-scale attack on Israel, CNN reported. The second source indicated that, unlike Iran, Hezbollah could launch an attack with little or no warning, given that Lebanon shares a border with Israel. The source also noted that it is unclear how, or whether, the Islamic Republic and its Lebanese ally are cooperating on a potential attack, and some officials believe they may not have a shared vision on how to proceed.
From an operational point of view, Hezbollah is autonomous since, according to experts, it can count on a number of militants ranging between 20,000 and 30,000 units. The group has an arsenal of 150,000 missiles, tanks and rocket artillery systems, and long-range weapons that include the Iranian Zelzal-2 and Fateh-110 complexes. These systems use large-caliber, heavy missiles that can hit targets 200-300 kilometers away. So could it strike and take full responsibility? Possibly, but it would expose itself to harsh retaliation from Israel, which would abandon all caution if civilian casualties occurred. An unverified report by Channel 12 news reported that Israel has warned both Hezbollah and Iran that any harm to civilians in Israel during the planned retaliation for the killing of high-profile terrorist leaders would be a red line, prompting an unprecedented response. The report said Israel is preparing for potential attempts to attack civilian infrastructure or Israel-related targets abroad, although there is currently no intelligence indicating plots against specific locations outside the Jewish state. As for Iran, U.S. officials cited by Politico on Wednesday night reiterated earlier reports that Tehran may reconsider launching a full-scale attack on Israel, following efforts by the Biden administration to work with Middle Eastern allies to get Iran to reevaluate its plans. But the conditional is required.
According to theAccording to the report, Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could trigger a direct clash between the two countries. Officials also noted that Iran has been urged to review its response to Haniyeh’s killing, as it now appears likely that he was killed in a covert operation with a bomb planted in his room in Tehran, rather than through a direct missile strike, as was initially thought. It is impossible that the Mossad acted alone, however, so the Iranians would have a double problem. In this regard, former Israeli chief of staff and former member of the war cabinet Gadi Eisenkot of the National Unity party said in an interview with Channel 12 on Wednesday evening: “Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran by the Iranians.” Officials cited by Politico expressed their belief that Iran will still respond, but that the response may be more muted and not immediate. An Iran International report said President Masoud Pezeshkian urged Khamenei to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning that an escalation could lead to Israel devastating infrastructure and energy targets, crippling the economy already battered by sanctions. The report, which cited anonymous sources with knowledge of the situation who could not be independently verified, said Pezeshkian told the Supreme Leader that a war could increase discontent among citizens with the regime and even cause Iran’s collapse.
On the Hamas front, it should be noted that more than a month has passed since the last time Abu Obaydah, Hamas spokesman for the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the terrorist group’s armed wing, has appeared in public. Abu Obaydah is considered very popular among the Gazan population who support Hamas, yet he has not said anything in the past month, despite various events in recent weeks. Among the events that Abu Obaydah has not commented on were the elimination of the leader of Haniyeh and the elimination of Hezbollah’s number two, Fuad Shukr. Furthermore, while Abu Obaydah made statements on the 100th and 200th days of the war between Hamas and Israel, he did not make any statements on the 300th day of the war. In late October 2023, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari revealed the identity of the masked Hamas spokesman, publishing a photo of him. Hamas denied Hagari’s statement, claiming that the photo provided was not an image of Abu Obaydah. On X, Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson, wrote: “This is Hudhaifa Kahlout, who hides behind the nom de guerre Abu Ubaida and behind his red keffiyeh, just as Hamas hides behind civilian buildings to launch rockets into Israel. He and other Hamas-ISIS leaders like to hide in tunnels and behind women and children, as well as behind masks and shadows. Hudhaifa Kahlout, you have been exposed. It is time to drop the cover.” In December 2023, questions arose about Abu Obaydah’s well-being after he disappeared for several weeks. He reappeared in February 2024. There are claims in Gaza that Abu Obaydah may have been eliminated this time, but this has not yet been proven or officially confirmed, but his silence fuels rumors of his death.
