The United States believes Iran could launch a strike on Israel in the next 24-48 hours. Axios reports, citing informed sources, that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his colleagues from the G7 countries that Washington expects an Iranian attack to be imminent. According to the report, Blinken held the discussions with his counterparts in the context of American efforts to reduce tensions in the region and prevent the outbreak of an all-out war. US President Joe Biden has called his national security team to the situation room to discuss developments in the Middle East, and Biden will also speak with Jordanian King Abdullah, the White House said. The call comes a day after Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made a rare visit to Iran, which came amid ongoing diplomatic contacts between the United States and its partners, including France, Britain, Italy (which is very active these days) and Egypt, to try to prevent further regional escalation. Iranian sources are reporting a massive shipment of US weapons to the region, pointing to a large American cargo plane arriving at the Ali Al-Salem base in Kuwait, and perhaps for this reason the messages coming from Tehran are becoming more cautious.
Yesterday, the Iranians said they had rejected all efforts by the United States and diplomats in the Arab world to moderate their response to the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s number two, Fuad Shukr. eliminated by the Israelis in recent days in Tehran and Beirut. In the latest talks, the men of Tehran said, according to sources familiar with the details, as reported by the Wall Street Journal: “We do not care if our response causes war in the Middle East”, which is what the Iranians wanted when they decided to attack (via Hamas) Israel on October 7, 2023. This morning, however, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanani, as reported by Mehr, said that “Iran will take action to punish Israel for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, but does not seek to increase tensions in the region. Iran, based on its inherent right based on the principles of international law to punish the aggressor, will take serious and deterrent action with force, determination and firmness”.
So what could happen? We ask Lion Udler, an Israeli expert on military affairs and terrorism: “Iran has threatened Israel that it will retaliate more strongly and significantly than the attack on April 13-14, during which 331 munitions were launched, including 136 Shahed drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. The terrorist organization Hezbollah is also threatening a major retaliation for the elimination of the terrorist organization’s Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr. I can predict that Iran and its terrorist organizations in the Middle East are planning and coordinating a joint and simultaneous heavy attack, from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. The other possibilities, without excluding the first, are attempts at terrorist infiltration into Israel from Judea and Samaria, Lebanon and perhaps also from Syria.”
Can Hezbollah hit Israeli cities, and how can this be prevented? “As for Hezbollah, for a geographical issue, an attack with thousands of missiles, rockets and drones, even in depth, so Tel Aviv, Haifa and/or Jerusalem, is absolutely possible. Again, based on intelligence information, it is possible to carry out a preemptive strike throughout Lebanon, to limit the attack on Israel. Israeli officials do not even rule out a ground maneuver in Lebanon, which is necessary in the event of a serious escalation to eliminate and destroy the terrorist organization’s launch sites, which cannot be completely destroyed from the air alone.”
It is certain, however, that this will be a large-scale attack, to which Israel will respond like never before. “The State of Israel, with its Arab and Western allies, is preparing for a scenario of a large-scale attack that will take place simultaneously from multiple countries, strengthening its defenses to counter it. At the same time, Israeli officials report that if Israel learns, through intelligence, what the attack plans of Iran and its affiliates are, it will attack preemptively to limit the expected attack and its consequences. We can think of air and/or missile attacks against missile, rocket and drone launch sites in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza, to counter or at least reduce the risk to the State of Israel. The Israeli response to the Iranian attack in April was symbolic: a single missile destroyed the Iranian air defense in Isfahan, which protected the nuclear site of Natanz. It was a message: Israel is capable of destroying the Iranian air defense and then proceeding with the elimination of the nuclear sites, which at that point are left without air defenses. Depending on the scale of the Iranian attack this time, the message sent last time could become reality. Israel recently demonstrated that it can carry out air strikes far from Israel, when dozens of Jerusalem fighter jets attacked and destroyed the Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen, some 1,800 km away, while potential targets to strike in Iran and elsewhere are less than a few hundred km away.
Meanwhile, the war in Gaza continues unabated. The Israeli army announced that it has eliminated Abed Al-Zeriei, the Finance Minister of Hamas: «Al-Zeriei was active in the Production Department of the military wing of Hamas and served as Hamas’s Minister of Economy in Gaza. He played a significant role in Hamas’s efforts to control humanitarian aid entering Gaza and in managing markets under Hamas control. He was also in charge of distributing fuel, gas and funds for terrorist activities,” the IDF wrote in a statement. Finally, it should be noted that Russia has clearly sided with Iran in the war against Israel, so much so that it is no longer limited to supplying missiles, but also to high-level meetings publicized by the press. As Tass writes, the former Russian Defense Minister and current Secretary of the National Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in Iran this morning “for a working visit.” This was announced by the Security Council of the Russian Federation, specifying that in Tehran Shoigu will meet with the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, and the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri. Shoigu will also be received by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
