Iran’s Foreign Ministry said this morning that calls by France, Germany and Britain for Tehran to back away from threats of a large-scale attack on Israel “lack political logic and contradict the principles of international law.” The three European countries issued a statement yesterday calling on Iran and its allies in the Middle East to refrain from attacks on Israel, following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. The statement expressed concern over the escalation of tensions in the region, stressing its commitment to stability and calling on Iran and its allies to avoid attacks that could further escalate the situation and jeopardize the possibility of a ceasefire and the release of hostages. On X, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani wrote yesterday: “Long phone call with the Iranian Foreign Minister. I asked for restraint and a constructive approach; Now is the time to avoid reactions that fuel the conflict in the region, jeopardizing the work for the ceasefire in Gaza. Stop sacrificing the lives of innocent civilians.” In response to diplomatic requests, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said: “Without denying the crimes of the Zionist regime, the statement brazenly calls on Iran not to react to a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We are determined to deter Israel and call on you to definitively oppose the war in Gaza and Israeli militarism.” Yesterday evening, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had already said, after a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had called for de-escalation, that his country “has the right to respond to any aggression” and he is certain that the Israelis will do so. No sooner had these statements been recorded than the Iranians dramatically backtracked. The Times of Israel wrote earlier that three Iranian officials said: “Only a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, resulting from the August talks, can prevent Iran from taking direct revenge against Israel for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil.” But there is more because according to Channel 12 quoted by Reuters, for the first time since the beginning of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, Iran has expressed interest in sending an emissary who will participate in the talks indirectly, in fact, this representative will not participate in the direct talks, but will maintain a channel of communication with the United States during the mediation.
But the surprises did not end there, as a senior Hamas official told the Saudi newspaper Asharq that “Yahya Sinwar wants to stop the conflict and achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.” The head of the jihadist organization told negotiators that he was asking Israel to suspend military operations in the Strip as a condition for its participation in the negotiations. Three days ago, Hamas had already publicly declared that it would not participate. Israeli media, quoting the Wall Street Journal, said that it would be very difficult for Jerusalem to accept this request. In any case, Jerusalem’s response was not long in coming, informing the United States and several European countries that, in the event of an attack by Iran, Israel would respond with direct action on the territory of the Islamic Republic. This information was reported by Israeli military radio and the “Times of Israel” newspaper, according to which Jerusalem is ready for a counter-retaliation even if a possible Iranian attack does not cause casualties. Given the negative signals, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that in recent days, the United States has increased its presence in the region, deploying more forces than it did before Iran’s unprecedented attack on April 13-14, 2024.
Kirby also noted that the timing of a possible Iranian attack could affect ceasefire talks in Gaza, currently scheduled to resume on August 15. Finally, according to information provided by Hamas and reported by the London-based Arabic news site Asharq al-Aqsat, “only a limited number of ‘trusted’ people know the location of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.” Sinwar communicates exclusively through handwritten or printed messages, signed by him, which are then delivered in person to their destination. Only in rare cases has Sinwar made phone calls, following special security procedures for fear of being located and killed by the Israelis, who would certainly not miss the opportunity to eliminate him if the jihadist leader were to sit down at the negotiating table.
