In the Kursk region of Russia, fighting continues between Russian and Ukrainian forces, who are trying to advance. The Ministry of Defense in Moscow confirmed the situation, noting the use of ground troops, artillery and aviation. The confrontations are concentrated in the districts of Sudzhensky and Korenevsky. In addition, the Ministry reported that air strikes are also hitting the Ukrainian reserves advancing in the Sumy region of Ukraine. According to data provided by Moscow, since the beginning of the incursion, at dawn on Tuesday, the Ukrainian forces have suffered losses of 660 servicemen and 82 armored vehicles, including eight tanks.
Mykhail Podoliak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential administration, said that the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region of Russia, which has been ongoing for more than two days, is a direct consequence of Russian aggression against Ukraine: “The sole cause of all escalations, shelling and military action in the (Russian) Kursk and Belgorod regions is Russia’s unequivocal aggression and its invasion of Ukraine, which has been going on for more than two years,” Podoliak told X. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, answering a question about Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, said: “We intend to contact the Ukrainian military authorities to learn more about their plans.” European Commission spokesman Peter Stano also said at his daily press briefing: “We believe that Ukraine is fighting in self-defense against illegal aggression and within the framework of these legitimate rights of defense. Ukraine has the right to attack the enemy wherever it deems necessary, on its territory, but also on the enemy’s territory.».
There are currently no official reports or comments from the Ukrainian General Staff. For now, we can only rely on geo-localized images and videos, independent sources and news from Russian military blogs. The Ukrainian penetration is about 10-15 km deep and seems to have reached the town of Sudzha. Ukrainian troops are in the town, but it is difficult to determine how much of the territory has actually been occupied. What is really going on? We talk to the strategic analyst Virgil Lo Presti: «For this penetration, the Ukrainians have so far used two brigades, the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. These are two mechanized formations with high operational mobility and composed of experienced troops. The Ukrainian attack took the Russians by surprise, as demonstrated by the discrete and not yet precisely quantifiable number of prisoners captured by the Ukrainian troops. The Kremlin had not thought of robustly protecting the border, which was defended only by a thin line of infantrymen. The Kiev troops then overcame two static defensive lines, consisting of anti-tank ditches and rows of “dragon’s teeth”, but they did not find – and they knew it – manned trench systems»
How did the Russians react?
“Very slowly, the Northern Military Command, which does exist, has not shown its reactive capacity, perhaps once again the centralization of the Russian chain of command has demonstrated its inefficiency when it comes to making immediate decisions. The creation of a salient with the use of highly mobile mechanized troops involves considerable risks. If the salient extends, logistical problems arise: food, ammunition, fuel and repair of vehicles. Protecting the flanks of a salient is then essential both to defend the troops that have advanced and to keep a corridor open in the event of a retreat; for this reason, whether the Ukrainians decide to continue the penetration or take advantage of the delayed Russian reaction to entrench themselves in the conquered areas, the operation will most likely suck up new resources.”
What are the goals of the Ukrainians?
“So far the Ukrainians have not captured any cities or key locations. The hypothesis that they are targeting the Kursk nuclear power plant seems unlikely to us, this facility is located 60 km from the border; even more unlikely is the hypothesis that the Ukrainians are trying to attack Kursk itself: trying to capture a city in enemy territory with only the strength of 2/4 brigades would be a real gamble. What objectives the Ukrainian General Staff has set itself by undertaking this operation is unknown to anyone, the whirlwind of suppositions has of course already opened up but only the next few days will be able to give us some more concrete indications on what they have in mind in Kiev”.
